If a basketball player makes 10 shots in a row, or if we absolutely crush a presentation at work, we expect this exceptional performance to continue. Regression to the mean fools us everyday. “Man’s inability to see the power of regression to the mean leaves him blind to the nature of the world around him.”

Once you consciously recognize this fact, you may not hold so closely to the predictions you and others make. They are judgments that involve imperfect information and uncertainty. Predictions are not accurate statements of the world.

“A prediction is a judgment that involves uncertainty.” Even when you are certain in the moment that you want to do it, the test of time will reveal your true feelings, and the result may be surprising. If you are presented with an invitation to do something, wait 24 hours to make a decision. Wait a day, Amos said, and you’ll be amazed how many of those invitations you would have accepted yesterday you’ll refuse after you have had a day to think it over.” “Amos liked to say that if you are asked to do anything-go to a party, give a speech, lift a finger-you should never answer right away, even if you are sure that you want to do it. Because of this, we can inadvertently reinforce or weaken stereotype by the nature of how we classify things. When we group things together, the things we have grouped seem more similar than they otherwise would have.

If you want to weaken some stereotype, eliminate the classification.” That is, the mere act of classification reinforces stereotypes. “Things are grouped together for a reason, but, once they are grouped, their grouping causes them to seem more like each other than they otherwise would. This principle is essential if you want to master the art of influence. The context in which we compare things informs how we understand and evaluate those things. If you compare an apple to an orange, you will see it differently than if you compare it to a tree. “By changing the context in which two things are compared, you submerge certain features and force others to the surface.”Ĭontext matters. Their work reshaped our understanding of the human cognitive process, challenging the rational actor models and highlighting important cognitive shortcoming that influence our attitudes, beliefs, and actions.īuy this book on Amazon(Highly recommend)Īccess My Searchable Collection of 100+ Book Notes Key Takeaways Context matters A great story about the partnership of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, pioneers in the field of the decision making and judgment.

The undoing project summary